Scammers persist to target vulnerable members as scam flags breach 90% for second time this year
Scammers persist to target vulnerable members as scam flags breach 90% for second time this year
27 Aug 2025
XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index rose sharply in July 2025, with 94% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service raising at least one scam warning flag. This is a 6% increase in the Index compared to June 2025 and only the second time the Index has surpassed 90% over the past 12 months.
XPS’s latest Transfer Value Index showed relative stability transfer values compared to the previous few months. The Index decreased slightly to £139,000, reflecting a continued period of low market volatility driven by more stable gilt yields and inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index decreased in July to an annualised rate of 22 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. While down from June’s two-year high, this still reflects elevated activity levels compared with much of 2024, and continues a pattern of greater overall stability across the market this year.
Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: “The increase in the Scam Flag Index highlights the persistent vulnerabilities around pension transfers, with 94% of cases last month triggering at least one potential scam warning sign. This ongoing trend reinforces the need for stronger safeguards across the industry — not just through regulation, but through better systems and member support.”
Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index
Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index
Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index
Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months
Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.
Notes:
XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPS Arena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.
XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.
XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.
XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK DB schemes, this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year
XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.
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