Accessibility tools

Transfer Value Index falls to lowest month-end level since 2016

Transfer Value Index falls to lowest month-end level since 2016

20 Mar 2023

XPS Pension Group’s Transfer Value Index fell by around 4% over February to £168,000, which is the lowest month-end value since the Index was first published in June 2016. Long-term inflation expectations have been largely stable over recent months, with the decrease primarily due to a steady rise in gilt yields throughout February.

XPS’s Transfer Activity Index increased only slightly during February, showing an annualised rate of 42 members per 100,000 transferring out of the current scheme to an alternative arrangement. This activity is in line with what we have seen over the past year, suggesting a stabilisation in transfer rates.

92% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in February raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS’s Scam Flag Index. This represents a slight fall from the previous three months, although the Index has remained above 90% since June 2022.

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Pensions Group – All data is at the end of each month.


XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions.  Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Activity Index, (the bars on the chart) represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 50,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Pensions Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 350 occupational pension schemes.