XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index continues to fall, down over 6% this year

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index continues to fall, down over 6% this year

20 Oct 2025

XPS’s Transfer Value Index recorded a modest increase in September 2025, though the quarterly average remained below the previous period. At month-end, values were almost 3% down on the end of June 2025.  

Transfer Values have dropped 6% since the start of the year.  While overall values remain low, the Index has shown a period of greater stability, with month-end values fluctuating within a £5,000 range over the past six months.

XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index, reported that 92% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in September 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag – a marginal 1% drop from August. This marks the first quarter since the summer of 2023 where the Index has remained above 90%.

Transfer activity  increased slightly in September, with XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index rising to an annualised rate of 18 in every 1,000 members transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements.  After a steady start to 2025, the Index has shown greater volatility over recent months.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: “Whilst transfer values have fallen over the course of 2025, we have also seen signs of greater stability over Q3 which is a promising sign, suggesting a more predictable environment for pension decision-making. This is crucial for members approaching retirement as they will be able to make more informed decisions about the options that may be most suitable for them.

This increased stability may also be having an impact on transfer volumes, which we have generally increase in 2025, despite the small dip in recent months.

It’s clear that the issue of pension scams is not going away, with the majority of transfers continuing to raise at least one scam warning flag albeit in many cases this is the ‘overseas investments’ flag which some may view as a lower risk flag."

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

 

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

 

 Table 1 - Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPS Arena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK DB schemes, this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.