XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index continues historic low for second month in a row

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index continues historic low for second month in a row

28 May 2025

In April 2025, XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index recorded its lowest ever month-end figure for the second month in a row. A new Index low of £137,000 was observed in mid-April, which is the first time the Index has dropped below £140,000 since its inception. Although the position recovered slightly over the second half of the month, the month-end position of £141,000 was a new month-end low. The drop in the Index was driven by the continued volatility of gilt yields and falling long-term inflationary expectations.

83% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service raised at least one scam warning flag during April 2025, according to XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index. This slight decline in the Index was the lowest figure seen since May 2022, when the impact of the 2021 Transfer Value Regulations began to take full effect.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index saw a marginal increase over April 2025, to an annualised rate of 23 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This increase was despite a steady fall in transfer values over the past six months.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "Despite last month’s dip in transfer values – reflective of continued market volatility – the slight rise we saw in transfer activity suggests that members remain engaged and proactive in managing their retirement options. It is also positive to see that scam warning flags fell to the lowest observed level in nearly three years, suggesting progress in protecting members from pension scams."

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

_{Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.}

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPS Arena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK DB schemes, this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.