XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index hits third consecutive record low

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index hits third consecutive record low

25 Jun 2025

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index fell to a new month-end low in May 2025, the third consecutive monthly record. The Index fell to £137,000 during the month, matching the mid-month low seen in April 2025. This decline reflects small increases in gilt yields across the month, whilst future inflation expectations have remained stable.

According to XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index, 85% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in May 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag, which was a small increase from the previous month. Although still elevated, scam warning flags remain below the peak seen in 2022, following the introduction of the new transfer regime.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index has fallen marginally over May 2025 to an annualised rate of 22 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This is the first time since 2023 that the index has seen three consecutive months where the annualised rate has been greater than 0.2%. Whilst a small increase has been observed, activity levels remain significantly lower than prior to the gilts crisis of September 2022.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "For the third consecutive month, we’ve observed a new month end low for the Transfer Value Index, which reflects continued increases in gilts yields, coupled with greater stability in long term inflationary expectations. Despite this, transfer volumes have stabilised over the past few months at a higher level than observed earlier in the year, albeit is at a much lower level than prior to the 2022 mini budget, when observed transfer values were significantly higher.”
 

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

 

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

_{Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.}

 

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPS Arena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK DB schemes, this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.