XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index sees first increase since the start of 2025

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index sees first increase since the start of 2025

24 Jul 2025

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index increased to a month-end value of £141,000, marking the first month-end increase in the Index since the start of 2025. The Index briefly peaked just over £143,000 during June, surpassing this level for the first time since the start of April 2025. The increase was driven by a small decrease in gilt yields whilst future inflation expectations have remained flat. However, the Index remains around 10% lower than in mid-2024.

XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index revealed that 88% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in June 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag, a 3% increase on the prior month. The Index average over the past six months is slightly lower than in the final six months of 2024, although the Index has shown greater volatility during this period. The ‘overseas investment’ amber flag remains the most frequently identified scam warning sign.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index increased in June to an annualised rate of 25 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This represents the highest rate the Index has recorded since August 2023, continuing a trend over the past quarter of the Index remaining above 0.2%. This suggests that, after a period of decline, pension transfers may be regaining some of their previous popularity.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: “Whilst the Transfer Value Index remains at a relatively low level, transfer activity has been increasing over recent months, suggesting that this option is slightly regaining some of its previous popularity. Consequently, trustees should be ensuring that appropriate support is available to members who are considering this option.

The uptick in the Scam Flag Index is disappointing, though it is reassuring to see that the Index average has decreased over 2025. However, reviewing the transfer regulations is unlikely to be a high priority for the Government due to the volume of other significant pension industry reforms underway.”

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPS Arena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK DB schemes, this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.