XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index steadies as gilt yields settle at the end of 2025

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index steadies as gilt yields settle at the end of 2025

26 Jan 2026

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index, which monitors how market developments impact the transfer value of a typical pension scheme member, remained consistent over Q4 2025, closing the year at £141,000. This reflects that Government bond yields have remained relatively stable following the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget. While the Index was more volatile in the first half of 2025, greater stability was seen at the end of 2025.

Transfer activity decreased marginally over December 2025, with XPS’s Transfer Activity Index, which monitors the volume of members who transfer out of their DB pension scheme, falling to an annualised rate of 15 in every 1,000 members transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. While the summer months saw an uptick in transfer activity, it since returned to the same levels seen at the beginning of 2025.

XPS's latest Scam Flag Index, which tracks the percentage of transfers identified as having a scam warning flag, reported that 94% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in December 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag, demonstrating a marginal increase compared to the previous quarter-end in September 2025.

Robert Wallace, Partner, XPS Group, said: “While transfer activity was subdued at the end of 2025, transfer values have shown signs of stabilising. Activity levels have remained broadly consistent since mid-2023 at around 15 to 20 transfers per 1,000 members each year, with modest seasonal increases typically seen over the summer months. Simultaneously, the continued rise in scam warning flags underlines the importance of ongoing vigilance and robust fraud prevention measures.”
 

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

 

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

 

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

 

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

 

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.