XPS Transfer Watch reveals a new record low for transfer values, amid continued market volatility

XPS Transfer Watch reveals a new record low for transfer values, amid continued market volatility

28 Apr 2025

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index has experienced a further decline over the course of March 2025, concluding the month at a new record low of £142,000.

Throughout 2025, the Index has remained below £150,000, with the lowest mid-month figure also recorded in March. The main driver of this decline was a further increase in gilt yields, coupled with falling long-term inflation expectations. Whilst the latter part of the quarter saw increased volatility in equity markets due to the initial US tariff announcements, the longer-term impact on the wider financial markets is yet to be seen.

A large jump was observed in XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index over March 2025, with an annualised rate of 21 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This is the first time the Index has surpassed an annualised rate of 20 members since July 2024, and reverses the downward trend that has been observed over the past few months. This uptick in transfer activity may indicate a growing confidence among members in choosing a pension transfer as a retirement planning option, despite the current market uncertainty.

In March 2025, 85% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index. This represents a 7% decrease from the previous month, marking the largest single-month change since mid-2023. The Index fluctuated throughout the first quarter of 2025, but fell back to figures seen in previous months.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "Despite record-low transfer values, we saw an uptick in transfer activity in early 2025. Due to the ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and potential trade deals with the US, markets are likely to remain volatile late into this year. It is more important than ever that members fully understand their benefit entitlements and that they receive high-quality independent financial advice when planning for their retirement, particularly if transferring is an option they are considering.”

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.