Middle East conflict drives volatility in pension transfer values, XPS analysis shows

Middle East conflict drives volatility in pension transfer values, XPS analysis shows

15 Apr 2026

XPS Group's Transfer Value Index increased slightly over the first quarter of 2026, ending the March at £142,000, its highest quarter-end level in a year. The Index peaked at £146,000 in mid-February 2026, reflecting falling gilt yields and more stable inflationary expectations. However, it fell following the market reaction to the conflict in the Middle East, amid continued uncertainty of the longer term impact.

XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index increased in March 2026 to an annualised rate of 18 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements, although activity remains subdued overall. High gilt yields have impacted transfer values, which may explain the muted level of activity which continues to persist. With ongoing global conflicts driving economic uncertainty, it remains unclear whether transfer rates will recover to the levels seen before the gilts crisis of 2022 anytime soon.

XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index reported that 92% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in March 2026 raised at least one scam warning flag. After a dip at the start of the year, the Index has increased slightly over the past few months and has observed an increase in concerns relating to unclear or complex charging structures in the receiving scheme. With advances in AI making pension scams increasingly sophisticated and harder to detect, ensuring robust scam protection process are in place should again be a key priority for Trustees.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: “A long-term resolution in the Middle East continues to remain uncertain, and the full impact on pension scheme members is yet to be realised. It is crucial that members fully understand their retirement options and any ongoing risks they continue to face. Trustees should be ensuring that members who are considering transferring away from guaranteed benefits have access to high-quality financial advice so that they fully understand the potential impact that shocks in global markets can have on their pension pots.”

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:
XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.