Pension scam warning flags top 98% in Q2 2026 as DWP consults on transfer regulations

Pension scam warning flags top 98% in Q2 2026 as DWP consults on transfer regulations

23 Jul 2026

XPS Group’s latest Scam Flag Index revealed that 97% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in June 2026 raised at least one scam warning flag, slightly down from 98% in May 2026. The persistent level of scam warning flags demonstrates that the threat posed by pension scams remains significant, that members must continue to maintain a high level of vigilance and that Trustees should ensure they have robust scam protection processes in place. This comes amid the DWP’s consultation on proposed changes to pension transfer regulations.

XPS’s Transfer Value Index fell to £138,000 at the end of June 2026, its lowest level this year. Continued disruption to global energy markets, and uncertainty over future oil prices, drove up long-term inflation expectations and gilt yields. These offsetting pressures kept transfer values broadly stable over Q2 2026, despite the monthly decline.

XPS’s Transfer Activity Index remained over 0.2% throughout Q2, peaking in June at an annualised rate of 24 transfers per 1,000 members - the highest level since June 2025. This sustained increase in activity may suggest that pension transfers could be regaining popularity, despite the continued high gilt yield environment.

Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said:

“The DWP’s consultation on changes to the pension transfer regulations proposes targeted changes in relation to transfers to Small Self-Administered Schemes, whilst also addressing practical issues identified in the 2023 review. This is welcome news as the proposed removal of the overseas investment flag should help to speed up otherwise low risk transfers. However, the potential widening of the First Condition should be considered with caution as this could mean that over 75% of transfers that are currently receiving enhanced due diligence could be processed automatically without further scrutiny. Whilst the proposed changes may improve the member experience for those choosing to transfer their benefits, careful assessment of transfer requests remains as important as ever.”

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index
 

 Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index

Chart 3 - XPS Scam Flag Index

Table 1 - Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.

Notes:

XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.