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Transfer Activity falls to lowest level since June 2022

Transfer Activity falls to lowest level since June 2022

25 May 2023

XPS Pension Group’s Transfer Activity Index fell by nearly 12% during April, with an annualised rate of 34 members per 100,000 transferring out of their current scheme to an alternative arrangement. This is the lowest activity seen for nine months.

XPS’s Transfer Value Index fell by nearly 4% over April, finishing the month at £169,000 and returning to a similar level as February 2023. The fall is primarily due to a slight rise in gilt yields over April, coupled with decreasing long-term inflation expectations.

An increase in XPS’s Scam Flag Index was observed in April with 94% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service over the month raising at least one scam warning flag. This is up from 94% the previous month and is the eleventh consecutive month of this Index exceeding 90%.

Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index

Transfer watch May 1.PNG

Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index 

Transfer watch May 2.PNG

Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index

Transfer watch May 3.PNG

Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Transfer watch May 4.PNG

Source: XPS Pensions Group – All data is at the end of each month.


XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions.  Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.

XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Activity Index, (the bars on the chart) represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 50,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Pensions Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 350 occupational pension schemes. 

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